Still long odds

Posted by Steve

The Brewers have really accomplished something over the last month. We’ve talked about how amazing it is that they’re even in the running for the playoffs, but now, what are their chances of actually finishing it off and getting there?

Not good.

Entering today, Baseball Prospectus gave the Brewers a 5.2% chance to reach the playoffs, while the Dodgers are at 11.4% and the Cardinals are at 79.5%. The reason it’s so high has been on display over the last couple nights: The Cardinals have an incredibly easy schedule and a two-game lead on the next closest team.

The Brewers are playing out of their minds, but unfortunately, it doesn’t matter if the Cardinals (and Dodgers, I guess) don’t lose as well. The Brewers gained five games on St. Louis over ten days, whichsd is an amazing number, but it still may not be enough. The Cardinals play the Astros, Cubs, and Astros again yet this season. They’re beating up on Houston for the second night in a row, which means even after beating the Pirates and essentially vanquishing any playoff hopes Pittsburgh had left, the Brewers haven’t gained any ground.

The Brewers have 14 games left. Normally, you’d think winning nine of those games would chase down the Cards, but with that darn schedule, I’m not so sure. I feel fairly confident in saying more than nine wins in their last 14 will do it, but at the same time… That’s very difficult to do.

Yes, they’ve been playing at that rate for a long time (22 wins in last 28 games), but like I said, that’s also an unsustainable rate. The team is really firing on all cylinders, though (BTW, Jean Segura, you guys!), so who knows.

They certainly have our attention, and what they’ve done should absolutely be applauded, but if they slip up even a bit, this won’t last long. The Pirates were right with the Brewers at the start of this series, and two days later you can pretty much stick a fork in them. This could just as easily happen to the Brewers.


3 responses to “Still long odds

  1. Yeah, it’s cool they are playing well and are officially in the “ESPN Hunt for October” but…well, it’s a long road to hoe. Personally I’m glad to see them playing well PAST the point when they started to gain attention and were supposed to start not playing well. With that said, baseball is crazy and it seems like in recent years there is at least one team of destiny, I just hope the O’s don’t punch that ticket for 2012. ALSO with that said if it was the O’s I wouldn’t be too upset; the world needs more JJ Hardy, Buck Showalter, and their modern retro uniforms.

  2. Well last year we had two with the Rays and Cardinals, but that was as much about the massive chokes of Boston and Atlanta as anything.

    The Orioles and Blue Jays uniforms are outstanding.

  3. The best thing the Jays did with their unis was ditching both the black and futuristic font and embracing the classic Jay-with-Maple-Leaf of their World Series years. The O’s also went in a similar direction with the classic “Baltimore” cursive script, smiling cartoon oriole logo instead of the realistic posing oriole, and embracing the two-tone cap. Such a classic look. Plus the sleeve patch with the state flag is pure money.

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